The next great bull market

What this book actually teaches

The Next Great Bull Market (2009) by Matthew McCall is a market outlook book published in the early months of the 2008-2009 financial crisis bear market, arguing that the conditions then present — precisely because they were so negative — were setting up the next major secular bull market. McCall, a market strategist and media commentator, builds his thesis on a cyclical and structural argument: secular bear markets have historically ended with exactly the kind of fear, forced deleveraging, and capitulation that characterized early 2009, and the policy responses (fiscal stimulus, Federal Reserve intervention) combined with demographic and technological tailwinds were positioning equities for an extended recovery.

The book covers several investment themes McCall identified as the drivers of the next bull market. Energy independence and alternative energy — solar, wind, natural gas — receive substantial attention, reflecting the then-prominent policy and market focus on domestic energy production in the context of the prior year's oil price spike to $147 per barrel. Emerging markets, particularly China and Brazil, are presented as secular growth stories that would continue through U.S.-specific financial turbulence. Infrastructure spending tied to the Obama administration's stimulus package is treated as a near-term catalyst. Technology, healthcare innovation, and agriculture round out the thematic framework.

The analytical approach is thematic and narrative rather than quantitative. McCall identifies trends, explains their investment logic, and points toward sectors and in some cases specific companies and exchange-traded funds as vehicles for capturing the themes. This is the structure of a market strategist's investment outlook rather than a portfolio construction manual — it is better at identifying what might go up and why than at providing position sizing, risk management, or entry and exit discipline.

The bull market call, in retrospect, was well-timed: the S&P 500 bottomed in March 2009, approximately the month the book was published, and went on to one of the longest bull markets in U.S. history. Some of the specific themes — energy independence, emerging markets, infrastructure — played out with significant variation from the trajectory McCall outlined. Natural gas and domestic energy production did expand massively, driven by shale fracking rather than the renewables emphasis McCall highlighted. Emerging markets, particularly China, delivered strong returns through approximately 2010-2011 before a decade of underperformance relative to U.S. markets.

The weaknesses are inherent in the format. A market outlook book has a shelf life measured in months rather than years — the specific entry points, sector weightings, and company mentions are artifacts of 2009 conditions. The thematic analysis is interesting as a historical document but should not be used to inform current allocation decisions. The narrative style lacks the analytical rigor that would allow readers to evaluate the specific evidence for any individual claim independently.

For investors interested in how market strategists framed the recovery from the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and which investment themes were prominent at the market bottom, this book is an informative historical document. Its utility as forward-looking guidance has long since expired.

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About Matthew Mccall

Read more from Matthew Mccall and explore the full bibliography on ClearValue Books.