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◈ GLOSSARY · MONEY MINDSET

Prospect Theory.

A definition, in plain English — with the books that teach it.

Reviewed by ClearValue Editorial Team · Jun 27, 2026
DEFINITION

What it means

Definition

The Kahneman-Tversky model of how people actually make decisions under risk — and the academic backbone of behavioral finance. Two big findings: losses hurt about twice as much as equivalent gains feel good, and people evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point (usually their starting position), not absolute wealth. The honest caveat: it describes what people do, not what they should do; the lesson is to notice when your reference point is driving the call.

IN PRACTICE

Example

Offered a coin flip to win $150 or lose $100, most people decline — even though the expected value is positive. The pain of the potential $100 loss outweighs the appeal of the $150 win. That's prospect theory in one bet.

RECOMMENDED READING

Books that explain this

The Psychology of Money
Morgan Housel
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