JL Collins writes this not as a prediction but as a historical statement about the longest-running dataset available. The U.S. stock market — specifically the total market, not individual stocks or sectors — has recovered from every crash, correction, bear market, and panic in its recorded history and gone on to reach new highs. The trend line is relentlessly upward over any 20-year rolling window in modern market history.

Collins is careful to specify 'the market' rather than individual companies. His entire investment thesis rests on total-market index funds, which by definition cannot go to zero unless every publicly traded company in the United States simultaneously fails — at which point, he notes, no investment strategy would have mattered anyway. The argument is that the appropriate unit of analysis is the economy, not individual companies, and the U.S. economy has compounded through world wars, depressions, pandemics, political crises, and technological disruption.

The practical conclusion Collins draws is that the primary risk for most investors is not market volatility — it is being out of the market. Waiting for a better entry point, holding cash during uncertainty, or panic-selling during downturns all produce the same outcome: missing the recovery. The investors who captured the full historical return of the market are those who remained in it through every painful episode.

For new investors paralyzed by market volatility, Collins' message is explicit: stop waiting for certainty. Get in, stay in, and let time do the work.