Withdrawal Rate Calculator.
Model how long your portfolio lasts at different withdrawal rates — stress-test the 4% rule against your actual spending, timeline, and allocation.
Before you run the numbers.
The withdrawal rate question is the central tension of retirement planning: how much can you take from a portfolio each year without running out of money before you run out of years?
The 4% rule emerged from William Bengen's 1994 analysis of historical US market data. He found that a retiree who withdrew 4% of their initial portfolio in year one — and adjusted that dollar amount annually for inflation — never ran out of money over any 30-year historical period when the portfolio held at least 50% equities. The Trinity Study (1998) reinforced this finding across different asset allocations and time horizons.
The math behind a "safe" withdrawal rate is portfolio survival probability under sequence-of-returns risk. Even if your average return over 30 years is 7%, a bad sequence in the first 5–10 years — retiring into a bear market — can permanently impair a portfolio because early large withdrawals liquidate shares that never recover. The 4% rule accounts for this by starting from a conservative base. It is not a promise; it is a historical success rate that researchers found to be robust.
Different planners use different benchmarks based on time horizon and flexibility. Bengen himself later revised his recommendation upward to 4.5–4.7% as he refined the asset class data. More recent research using global markets (not just US) suggests 3.0–3.5% for international diversification. Early retirees targeting 40- or 50-year retirements often plan at 3.25–3.5% to add margin. Conservative planners and those with limited Social Security coverage may target 3.0% or lower.
Flexibility is the most powerful modifier. A retiree who can reduce spending by 10–20% in a down market sequence can survive withdrawal rates that would otherwise exhaust a rigid plan. Dynamic withdrawal strategies — guardrails, floor-and-ceiling rules — have meaningfully better outcomes than fixed-dollar approaches in historical backtests. Use this calculator to model your base case, then stress-test it at lower rates to see how much buffer your plan carries.
Run your scenario.
Taught in these books.
Common questions.
Is the 4% rule safe for 40- or 50-year retirements?
Probably not without adjustment. The original research focused on 30-year windows. For longer retirements, most planners drop to 3.25–3.5% to build in margin. The earlier you retire, the more conservative your initial withdrawal rate should be.
What happens if I retire into a bear market?
Sequence-of-returns risk is the primary danger in early retirement. A severe drawdown in years 1–5, combined with ongoing withdrawals, can permanently impair a portfolio even if average returns recover. This is why holding 1–2 years of expenses in cash or short-term bonds — a "buffer" — is commonly recommended as a retiree enters retirement.
Should I adjust withdrawals for inflation every year?
The 4% rule assumes you do: year 1 you withdraw 4% of the portfolio, then each subsequent year you increase the dollar amount by the prior year's inflation rate. In practice, most retirees find their spending is flexible enough to moderate increases in bad years — which actually improves their long-run portfolio survival rate.
What withdrawal rate does Vanguard or Fidelity recommend?
Neither publishes a single magic number. Vanguard's planning tools typically use 3.3–4% depending on time horizon and allocation. Fidelity's guidelines suggest 4–5% for 30-year retirements with equity-heavy allocations. All of these are starting-point estimates, not guarantees.